Add probabilistic ensemble evaluation metrics (CRPS, spread-skill ratio, rank histogram)

.github/workflows/ci-pre-commit.yml

@@ -12,10 +12,15 @@ jobs:
     runs-on: ubuntu-latest
 
     steps:
-      - uses: actions/checkout@v2
-      - uses: actions/setup-python@v2
+      - uses: actions/checkout@v4
+      - uses: actions/setup-python@v5
         with:
           # don't use python3.12 because flake8 finds extra issues with that
           # version
           python-version: "3.11"
-      - uses: pre-commit/action@v2.0.3
+
+      - name: Install dependencies
+        run: python -m pip install --upgrade pip && pip install pre-commit
+
+      - name: Run pre-commit hooks
+        run: pre-commit run --all-files

CHANGELOG.md

@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
+# Changelog
+
+All notable changes to this project will be documented in this file.
+
+The format is based on [Keep a Changelog](https://keepachangelog.com/en/1.1.0/),
+and this project adheres to [Semantic Versioning](https://semver.org/spec/v2.0.0.html).
+
+## [Unreleased]
+
+### Added
+
+- Probabilistic ensemble evaluation metrics:
+  - `crps()`: Continuous Ranked Probability Score for ensemble forecasts using the fair estimator.
+  - `spread_skill_ratio()`: Ratio of ensemble spread to the RMSE of the ensemble mean.
+  [\#4](https://github.com/mllam/mllam-verification/pull/4) @GiGiKoneti
+- Plotting functions for ensemble verification:
+  - `plot_rank_histogram()`: Generates Talagrand diagrams to evaluate ensemble calibration.
+  [\#4](https://github.com/mllam/mllam-verification/pull/4) @GiGiKoneti
+- Ensemble test fixtures (`da_ensemble_prediction_2d_utc`, `da_ensemble_prediction_2d_elapsed`) in `tests/unit/conftest.py` [\#4](https://github.com/mllam/mllam-verification/pull/4) @GiGiKoneti
+- Full `groupby` support for all statistical metrics (including CRPS and SSR) to enable grouped verification in plotting pipelines [\#4](https://github.com/mllam/mllam-verification/pull/4) @GiGiKoneti
+- Expanded unit tests for ensemble metrics and plotting functions, including unexpected input validation [\#4](https://github.com/mllam/mllam-verification/pull/4) @GiGiKoneti
+
+### Changed
+
+- Standardized statistical function signatures to `(ds_reference, ds_prediction)` to match plotting conventions [\#4](https://github.com/mllam/mllam-verification/pull/4) @GiGiKoneti
+- Improved plotting function robustness for `elapsed` and `UTC` time axes [\#4](https://github.com/mllam/mllam-verification/pull/4) @GiGiKoneti